Race performance predictors based on training and previous performances

There are multiple ways of predicting racing performance at a distance which you have not recently raced. The most common method is to extrapolate the same 'age-graded' performance from a recent race of different distance. Completing step 1 and 2 below will generate a table of predictions, based on you age-graded performance, at the bottom.

A second technique is to estimate the fitness that your training may have produced. We have created a tool based on a paper written by Giovanni Tanda. Use Step 3 to input how far and fast you have run each week, on average, over the last several weeks.

Other methods, not shown below, include extrapolating aerobic fitness from your heart rate (either while at rest, or at a given pace).

The 'reliability' of these techniques will depend upon the nature of the race (weather, terrain, elevation), your training (have you trained in similar conditions to the event), your pacing strategy (conservative or optimistic) and the actual limit you hit during the race (e.g. are you aerobically limited, or does pain prevent you from running at your aerobic maximum).

Using multiple predictors can help you to select an optimal pacing strategy to maximize your performance. Our suggestion is that the Tanda derived estimate is the best guide for marathon and long distance performance, whereas age-grading works well for estimating how you might fare in a shorter race of a similar distance to a recently completed one.


crplot.com is a great way to get a marathon prediction based on your Strava data

freshlegsmonday.com is a new version of this site and also available as a free app

Step 1
About you

Step 2
Previous race performance
Step 3
Training data for Tanda prediction

Tanda marathon prediction:

Junk pace is slower than:

Average weekly time:

Your age grading for is %
Event Age grade prediction Tanda prediction World record Age WR

All Distances
Event Age grade prediction Tanda prediction World record Age WR